CTOVision

A look ahead: Some technology developments to expect in 2009

2008 was a year of rapid changes for Chief Technology Officers.  We should expect 2009 to move even faster.  Where will the biggest trends take us?  I offer some considerations below.  Please look these over and give me your thoughts.   Push back if you have disagreement.

First, my overall advice for CTOs in 2009... Just like the new thin interfaces you will be testing in your lab... be flexible.   Now here are some more thoughts on what's in store for CTO s in 2009:

• Here is a no-brainer: Increasingly CTOs will leverage social media to collaborate.  Things are moving so fast that we all like to network to seek help on big things and to get advanced warning on what is coming next.  More of us will be on Twitter, in Facebook, and writing blogs.  And this is a good thing.

• "Mashups" will still be very important as an enterprise objective in 2009 (and beyond).   And the company that will help accelerate them into the federal enterprise is JackBe.  They do things in a way that enterprise CTO s like.  They build in connections to governance, security, identity management.  And they play well with the entire ecosystem so you don't have to rework all legacy just to use them.  Of course web2.0 will remain a key trend, but mashups takes web2.0 to a new, more mission-oriented level and for enterprise players the mission is what is important.

• An approach we will all learn to love and follow is "context accumulation".   This very important term was coined by Jeff Jonas, and I think Jeff is going to have all of us moving out on that in the next 12 months.   If you agree, visit his blog and by all means help others understand why this is really the only way we humans stand a chance of surviving/thriving in the onslaught of data.

• Federal acquisition of IT will still be criticized for all the reasons it always has been.  But there will also be an acceleration of a dramatic positive change brought about because of open source software and a new appreciation that IT acquisition processes (RFI/RFP/FAR/DFAR based purchases) do not apply to software that is free.  Free software is not being bought, it is being used, for free.  The whole reason the FAR exists is to ensure when the taxpayer's money gets spent it gets spent wisely.  When things are free the FAR has less applicability.  Services for open source are being bought and since that uses government money of course the taxpayers will continued to be served by the same FAR-type processes that are meant to ensure open competition, but that is not for free open source software, that is for services to configure and manage the software.

• Will this be the year of enterprise security?  We have been banking on that for a long long time.  We know the answers on how to make enterprises more secure.  There is a great recap of some of the most important components of security in the CSIS report.  But there are many more things that can be done as well. My goal, as captured here, is to improve security by two orders of magnitude within the next 24 months. 

• Netbooks, Thin Clients and Cloud Computing will accelerate throughout the technology landscape, especially inside the federal government.  These trends in both devices and the cloud components are directly related and are also benefiting from the global, unstoppable trend toward open computing (open software and open standards).  One to watch in this area:  Sun Microsystems.   But also track the dynamics of the netbooks providers.  Dell will get serious about netbooks, but Acer will continue to grow market share.

• A key accelerator of Cloud Computing has been the powerful technologies of virtualization, especially those of VMware.  Open source and other virtualization capabilities are coming fast too.  Trend to watch in 2009 is the arrival of higher order, more elagant capabilities to manage virtualizaiton accross large enterprises.  VMware and Opsware (HP) will continue to evolve to do this, but Appistry, Vizioncore, Xsigo and Sun (and others?) are coming fast.    
  
  
• Increasingly leaders will recognize that concepts of operation that require humans to tag and create metadata are sub-optimized.  When busy people are tasked with burdensome tagging operations they too frequently become tempted to cut corners and rush the process.  Over time, meta data generated this way just becomes meta crap.  This growing recognition in the federal space will sweep in new technologies and new approaches to discovery of content.  One to watch to solve this issue:  Endeca, because of their approach to visualizing information and enabling human to computer iterative examination of data. 
  
  
• Flexible computers will arrive in production this year for early adopters and many CTOs will use them in labs to assess applicability for massive deployment in the coming years.   These flexible computers are the ultimate thin clients.   Backends/servers/architectures developed for the cloud perfectly suit ultra thin, flexible computing devices. For more on this hot topic, start at the site of the Flexible Display Center at ASU.

• Collaboration will increasingly be seen as the means to link human brains together.   Collaboration tools that are stand alone stovepipes will be a thing of the past.  Users will collaborate using the entire technology environment:  voice, video, data, whiteboard, chat, application sharing, info discovery will increasingly be integrated into a single fabric.  Key players here:  Adobe, Microsoft and Cisco.

• In a big change for how money is moved in major enterprises, the CIO will be given responsibility for the energy budget.  This will encourage CIOs to modernize to conserve energy, since money saved from energy costs can be invested back in modern IT.  This will be a very virtuous cycle, that saves money for organizations, saves energy, and modernizes IT.   

• In a stunning turn, IPv6 will be rapidly adopted, not by enterprises, but in homes.  The major home communications provider that delivers full IPv6 to home environments (and to cell phones) will have an incredible advantage over competitors and will dominate.  The many rich features of IPv6 delivered to consumers will finally push enterprises everywhere to move out on IPv6. 

• In 2009, as in every year prior and for most into the future, there will continue to be bad people using technology to do bad things.  Enterprises will move to protect info, but bad guys will keep moving to get the data.   And the use of social networking tools by terrorists will likely grow.  This is not a foregone conclusion, but I'm not personally sure what can be done to mitigate the use of advanced technology by bad people, other than to say that we good people need to work together more to stop them, and my hope is that we can keep 2009 safe and secure.

Thoughts/comments/suggestions?  Please let me know what you think.

Tips for the new CTO: How to engineer a miracle

I ran into so many friends at the AFCEA solutions conference this week.  One guy I have not seen in person for years is  Mike “Ziggy” Steinmetz.  Ziggy is a great leader and thinker at Northrop Grumman.  He is also a tremendous collector of wisdom and a teacher who helped prepare me for my position as CTO of DIA.  Seeing him made me think I should share some of these lessons with you.

The lessons come from the true story of the 1980 US Olympic Hockey team. The guys that did the impossible by defeating the Soviets.  We all know the story.  And there is a GREAT movie titled “Miracle” that captures it very very well.  From the Amazon description of the movie: "Kurt Russell gives a brilliant performance as the dynamic and determined coach Herb Brooks, who had an impossible dream -- beat the seemingly unbeatable Soviets at their own game. Starting with a handpicked group of 26 undisciplined kids, Brooks coached them to play like they never played before, and turned 20 of them into a team that believed they could achieve the unachievable -- and in the process, united a nation with a new feeling of hope."

Think of the coach of that team, Herb Brooks, and his strategy for winning.  He took players who once played for competing teams with long standing rivalries and forged a new team unlike any team that had ever played before.  The way he did it has direct lessons for many areas of leadership, especially technology leadership. 

Watch the movie and look for these lessons/thoughts:

• Coach Herb Brooks convinced everyone that something different had to occur than had been occurring in the past.   ”Only way to succeed is to change the way we play the game. “  Then he engineered a strategy.
• Herb picked his team, not based on who the best technicians were, but who the best team players were:  "Not looking for the best players I am looking for the right players."   How does this translate to technologists?  CTOs want skilled technical experts, but just as important is getting skilled technical experts who can work as part of a team.
• Cheap shots however self justified, hurt the team "This is not about old rivalries."   As enterprises transition from the old way of doing things to the new way of doing things they must forget about our own old rivalries.
• Orientation early is by region:  "I'm Ralph Cox and I'm from where ever won't get me hit.”   Herb worked them till they realized—they are on a new team now.   Frequently technologists must have the same light bulb go off.   Enterprise technologists sometimes need to be reminded they play for a bigger team than they used to.  
• This is the same point Herb drives home when he says “ The name on the front is a hell of a lot more important than the name on the back”
• The team’s identity crisis had to be fixed as it was the source of a lot of the early problems. "Think you can win on talent alone...you don't have enough talent to win on talent alone!"  "Name on the front is a hell of a lot more important than the name on the back”  “Win loose tie...you are going to play like champions" "If you want to make this team you had better start playing at a level that forces me to keep you here".   Herb understood the consequences of the identity crisis the team faced he also understood he could not tell the team what their identity was; they had to figure that out for themselves.
• Herb's unexpected personal comments of concern towards Jimmy Craig..."I've got to know why you are here and where you are coming from"  "I'm here aren't I?"  "Don't forget to bring your game".
• NHL all stars lost because they played as individual all stars and not as a team.
• "All Stars won't change their game” No one has ever worked hard enough to skate with the Soviets for an entire game.... we will!
• Dedication to improvement and personal improvement were key.
• The Carter "Crisis in Confidence speech" is a metaphor for many old, legacy enterprise technology environments.  "More believe they will be less better off in the next 5 years".  “Stop crying start sweating, stop talking start walking".
• 1st face-off in Madison Sq garden.  Mark Johnson looks at the Soviet Captain and it is still evident he is thinking in terms of individual vs. team effort.  "Jimmy Craig's comment "you gotta listen to me" is a metaphor for the communications breakdown that led to the performance on the ice"
• O'Callaghan injury and the decision to keep him.  Herb knew that once the team was set it was less disruptive to go down a man than to introduce a new member of a successful team.
• "Pulling the goalie"  "Jimmy I Know there is more"  "Coach It's my net.” “Jimmy, They just scored 10 goals...right now its anybodies net"
• ”Lets not turn this game into something it is not.”  “I’m not sure we have any control over that”.
• ”You earn opportunity” Through hard work you make it “your time”.
• Face-off to the 3rd period.  Compare Mark Johnson’s face to that 1st face-off in Madison Sq garden.  Finally they meet as mental and physical equals.  The difference…attitude and a string of “small successes.”   I have seen technology teams like this.  I've seen engineering teams who have decided to be world class best and so they are.  I've seen technologists set goals for themselves that have them walking among the giants of computer science and enterprise operations. 

A CTO needs to do more than watch a movie to be a great CTO.  But this movie sure gives you things to think about.  So, a big thumbs up from the CTOvision movie review team.

A Great CTO and Pot Shots from the Peanut Gallery

My last blog post was on a guy a regard as one of the greatest CTOs: Vivek Kundra, CTO of the District of Columbia.  

Please see that post for a short summary of some of the great things he has been doing:

Vivek Kundra: Democratizing Data and Putting it in the Public Domain

There have been dozens of other reports on Vivek lately, all very much positive.  A recent one on the WTOPnews site at (District's top techie advises Obama transition) is one of many.  A comment from WTOP:

Kundra is credited with coining the phrase "The Digital Public Square." A place he describes as, "one in which technological advances now allow people from around the world unfettered access to their government. Through these advances, constituents can hold their government accountable from the privacy of their own homes."

But the point of this follow-on post is to talk about an article that runs Vivek Kundra down.  It was in the Washington Post.  I don't know why this guy wrote the piece slamming Vivek.  It was totally undeserved, in my opinion.   Maybe the author of the piece thinks it is cool to run people down for no reason?  I just don't have a clue.   I almost hate to draw your attention to what he said.  It is so childish and so stupid.  But I guess you should take a look.  In fact, I would encourage you to read it and comment on the site and let folks know what you think.   Check it out here:

Where's Firing Fenty When You Need Him?

Can you believe Marc Fisher actually suggests that mayor Fenty should fire Vivek?  He seems to want him fired for exercising world class best management techniques in a highly efficient, cost-effective way.   I think Fisher should issue an apology.   If you think so too, please comment on Fisher's drivel.

Vivek Kundra: Democratizing Data and Putting it in the Public Domain

I'm hoping most enterprise CTOs have had a chance to learn more about Vivek Kundra's Apps for Democracy initiative.  I'm really impressed by this activity for many reasons, but primarily because it got results of use to the citizens and visitors of DC.  This initiative proved yet again that Vivek Kundra is a CTO who gets things done.  From his bio:

Vivek Kundra was appointed by Mayor Adrian M. Fenty on March 27, 2007 to the Cabinet post of Chief Technology Officer (CTO) for the District of Columbia. As CTO, Kundra leads the Office of the Chief Technology Officer (OCTO), an organization of over 600 staff that provides technology services and leadership for 86 agencies, 38,000 employees, residents, businesses, and millions of visitors.

Prior to this Vivek was getting things done in the Commonwealth of Virginia, in the private sector, and in Arlington Virginia. 

In his current position he became an instant hero to an entire enterprise when he took the bold step of moving his enterprise to a Google Apps foundation. The video below provides some background on this move. 

An equally wise, and similarly bold move was Vivek's initiative called Apps For Democracy.  This contest began with Vivek insuring that the DC government is being as open and transparent with data as possible, exposing data in a variety of common formats.  This was no simple task, requiring vision, perseverance, and a dedication to plow through city hall obstacles that only a motivated leader could tackle.  Vivek set the groundwork for success by working with a great thought leaders like Peter Corbett at iStrategyLabs and by coordinating with Internet enthusiasts like the crew at Mashable.  The Strategy Labs team created a proposal for this project and brought this project to life in six days!  created a page encouraging mashup entries, and the result was an incredible generation of capabilities that serve DC citizens and visitors to our Capital.   47 applications were created in a way that did not require long procurement processes or costly integration contracts.  What do the apps do?  Check them out yourself here: medal-winners

My favorite:  DC Historic Tours.   This is really really cool.   Thanks Vivek!

For more see the video below:

Apps for Democracy from Shaun Farrell on Vimeo.

What else can I say about Vivek?  He also has great models for internal program management.  His approach is nothing like the one I learned from Gartner the everyone trys to implement.  And it is better than the one I learned in the corporate world that worked very well for us at TRW and Northrop Grumman.  His approach is nothing like the one we used at DIA.  In fact, if I had it to do over again I would use his approach in my old enterprise.  For more on his way, see the write up for his 2008 InfoWorld Top 25 CTO award. 

So hey, what's next?  My hope is that the methods and models of Vivek (and iStrategylabs) are applied across the nation and up to state and federal levels.  Think of the good that could be done. 

The Technology Implications of the Obama Win

There are several megatrends sweeping the technology industry today.  Some of them are about to be accelerated.  

I like to use five key topic areas to track megatrends in IT: 

- Convergence and trend towards unified communications and user empowerment
- Globalization and increasing internationalization of IT and demographic shifts
- Increasing open development of software and hardware
- Power, Cooling and Space (PCS) impacting data centers and every place computing is done
- Increasing pace of technology development and probability of disruption

Over the past two months two major events have occurred which are impacting these trends.  

The first was the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the resulting cascading effects on the financial industry.  The impact on IT spending and the movement of more enterprises to grid/cloud computing because of that are still being assessed, but for some thoughts see: Wall Street Crisis

The second was the Presidential election of Barack Obama.